Monday, 30 September 2019

Evaluating Winning Poker Hands

So you hold Tc-Jc in middle position where you were first to act. You raised to three times the big blind and you were called by the button. Everyone else folded. You are now out of position for the remainder of the betting rounds.
The flop came 6c-8h-Kc. You now have a strong flush draw, only a Qc high flush can beat your hand and you have 9 outs to the flush. I would discount one of those depending on what the button does but because the action is on you there is a big decision to make.
As I see it you have a few options in this situation:
1. Check and see what the button does. This is not, however, your best option. If you check and the button puts in a raise of say, three-quarters of the pot, you are priced out and it would be correct to fold. If the button makes a small raise you are getting the right odds to call but you have absolutely no new information about the strength of the button's hand. If the button checks behind you also are not in great shape because you have no idea if he is setting a trap.
2. Bet between half and two-thirds the pot. This is a pretty good choice here. If the button is on a flush draw then your bet makes a call here a weak, but probable move. A call would suggest the button is on a draw. If the button raises here then it is more likely he hit a piece of the flop. It is not entirely out of the question that the button called with a 6-8 in which case he made 2 pair and is ahead at this point but still vulnerable to your flush draw. It is also possible that he holds A-K or any other king for that matter, maybe even 8-8 or 6-6 or K-8 or K-6 and he decided to slow-play in this situation. If you hit your flush and the board doesn't pair your flush will almost always be the better hand. A call here would be correct.
3. Make a small probing bet. The probing bet here is okay, but not the best option. If you are called you don't get a lot of information. If you are raised you most certainly are way behind and should give up your hand. Nothing good can come of the probing bet here. It looks weak and it is weak.
Board Texture
When you are evaluating your hand you have a lot to think about especially when the board is heavily textured to a flush or straight. If you are holding a small straight draw you can be beaten by a larger flush. A small straight is vulnerable to a bigger straight. Either are vulnerable to a full house if the board pairs, especially when it pairs with a card that makes your flush. Now you are dead money and will probably be betting through the river only to lose the hand.
When the board is uncoordinated, there are no obvious straight or flush draws and you hold something like a set, you most likely have the best hand. If it is a small set then you are vulnerable to a larger set. Say you hold a set of fours and your opponent a set of tens. With set over set the smaller set is only around 3% to win the hand but this happens so rarely that playing any set is worth the risk with an uncoordinated board.
Your Read on your Opponents
So far I have only talked about the cards and how you must look at them relative to the strength of your hand and a bit about what you think your opponent would be playing under these circumstances. Another important factor to consider is what kind of player your opponent is. If he is tighter than a supermodel's tummy, then it is likely he is not going to raise with nothing.
If he is looser than the folds under an old man's chin then it is unlikely you can put him on anything but a wide range of hands. Under these conditions it is wise to remember that even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while, so it is wise to play with some degree of caution.
The point is that without a read on your opponent you are just playing cards. Holdem is a game won or lost by first playing the people and then the cards. Phil Hellmuth often rants about "Playing the playah." Its good advice!

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